By Amofokhai Williams
The figure represents a marginal 0.04 percentage point decline from January’s 15.10% reading, extending the disinflation trend that has characterised the opening months of the year.
More strikingly, the February 2026 rate stands a full 11.21 percentage points lower than the 26.27% recorded in the same month last year, underscoring the scale of the economic stabilisation achieved over the past twelve months.
Yet beneath the headline figures lie more complex signals that may give policymakers at the Central Bank of Nigeria reason for vigilance.
On a month-on-month basis, prices rose by 2.01% in February, a sharp acceleration compared to January, when the rate actually fell by 2.88%.
The NBS noted that this represents a 4.89% increase in the monthly pace of price changes, suggesting that while the year-on-year trend remains positive, short-term pressures are building.
The disaggregated data reveals a familiar pattern of urban areas experiencing higher inflation than their rural counterparts, though both recorded significant year-on-year improvements.
Urban inflation stood at 15.53% in February, down substantially from 28.49% a year earlier. However, on a month-on-month basis, urban prices surged by 2.55%, a dramatic turnaround from January’s 2.72% decline. Rural inflation told a similar story: 13.93% year-on-year (down from 22.73% in February 2025), but with monthly inflation accelerating to 0.71% from negative territory the previous month.
The twelve-month moving averages, often considered a better gauge of underlying trends, remain elevated.
The headline twelve-month average stood at 21.03% in February, up from 18.01% a year ago, reflecting the lingering impact of the high inflation experienced through much of 2025.
The NBS data comes as the monetary policy committee prepares for its next rate-setting meeting, with analysts divided on whether the recent disinflation justifies a pivot towards growth support or demands continued vigilance. February’s mixed picture is unlikely to settle the debate.
